Ukraine - 50.70

99

Democracy on the precipice

Ukraine’s tensions with neighboring Russia have been boiling for some time now. Tensions that began when Russia invaded the Crimean peninsula and backed rebellions in the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces in Ukraine have continually mounted since. Presently, Russia threatens Ukraine from three fronts, its Eastern border, its Northern Border via Belarus, and through Crimea. Russia’s intrusions into Ukraine have presented a serious problem for the country, undermining its national security. The existence of the de facto autonomous Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as the Russia-controlled Crimean peninsula have created a dilemma for scoring. Additionally, Russia has repeatedly meddled in Ukrainian politics, most notably in rigging Ukrainian elections in favor of pro-Russia politician Viktor Yanukovych in 2010. This is not to say that Ukraine is a nation without domestic issues. Police brutality, especially against demonstrators, is more than commonplace in Ukraine. Corruption is indemic in the country. Ukraine obeys extradition requests by friendly authoritarian regimes, most notably Uzbekistan. However, Ukraine’s most critical issues come from the Russian threat. The main obstacle to Ukrainian development, accession into NATO and the European Union, and democracy, is and always has been Russia.

Important Note: The scoring period elapsed before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine commenced. Ukraine was scored on the conditions in the country before the Russian invasion started. Regions of Ukraine under the de facto control of Russia or Russian-allied forces were scored and subtracted from Ukraine’s overall score.

Human Rights - 27

Ukraine (26/80): Third-party groups flagrantly violate human rights often and regularly, limiting Ukraine’s score to forty. Ukraine has fully abolished the death penalty. Russian-backed forces in the Donbas region (Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts) regularly committed human rights abuses. The Luhansk People’s Republic and Donetsk People’s Republic militias carried out regular extrajudicial executions in prison. LPR and DPR militias repeatedly used explosives in or near populated areas and launched mortar attacks into government-controlled areas, often near civilians. The government continued its investigation into the 2018 murder of civil activist Kateryna Hanziuk; who was allegedly murdered on a hit put out by the head of the Kherson Regional Legislature. The Ukrainian government continues to investigate killings and other crimes committed by security forces during the Euromaidan protests. Ukraine has complied with extradition requests from authoritarian regimes, most notably when it deported several Uzbek dissidents back to Uzbekistan. Torture in prison was rampant. Pedophiles were regularly tortured to death by prison guards and police frequently tortured inmates as a punishment for misbehavior. Prison guards have also been accused of extorting money from prisoners. The government occasionally tortured inmates to obtain confessions, and confessions obtained under duress were generally not thrown out of court. Police generally had high impunity for brutality and frequently beat detainees during their arrest. Prison conditions were poor. Compounding issues of guard brutality were issues of inadequate healthy food, medical and sanitation facilities, and lighting. The government often conducted arbitrary arrests, citing security concerns. Russian sympathizers were often arrested without due process. They were sometimes released without charge, while charges were sometimes retroactively applied. Holocaust and Communist-era property restitution cases were poorly managed. Emergency provisions allowing the government to conduct searches and seizures were often abused. The government sometimes conducted searches and seizures without a warrant or probable cause and these cases were not thrown out of court. Trans Ukrainians cannot serve openly. Ukraine guarantees discrimination protections. Same-sex marriage is constitutionally banned. Any single person can adopt but Ukraine does not recognize joint same-sex adoption. Abortion is legal to twelve weeks.

Crimea (0/10): Under Russian law, Crimea retains the death penalty under moratorium. Forty-five Ukrainian citizens have gone missing in Crimea since Russia’s takeover in 2014. Several were last seen in Russian custody. Torture in custody in Crimea was systemic and near-universal. Virtually all detainees in Crimea were tortured by the Russian government and torture in custody in Crimea went completely unpunished. Several Crimean Tatar activists were ruled insane and institutionalized without their will or consent. Prison conditions in Crimea are abhorrent, as prisons were horribly overcrowded and lacked adequate food and potable water, as well as medical and sanitation facilities. Prisoners were regularly beaten by prison staff. Arbitrary arrest was the norm in Crimea and arrest warrants were seldom issued. Russian authorities ran kangaroo courts with no independence or integrity in Crimea. The Russian government keeps over 105 political prisoners in Crimea, 73 of whom are Crimean Tatars held on charges of terrorism. The Russian government has been accused of running military training programs in schools. The government has shut down nearly all Ukrainian Orthodox Churches and mosques in Crimea. Russia is currently committing cultural genocide of Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars in Crimea. Russia has promoted the settlement of ethnic Russians on the peninsula and has forcibly evicted ethnic Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars in order to make room for Russians. Russia’s policy of Mass Russian Naturalization in 2014 violated international law. In 2014 Russia gave Crimeans eighteen days to opt out of a program that would grant them Russian citizenship and strip them of their Ukrainian citizenship. Those who opted out, overwhelmingly ethnic Ukrainians, were deported in droves. Journalists in Crimea face constant legal and physical harassment by Russian authorities. Crimea’s media environment is highly unsafe and the Russian government is known to arbitrarily arrest journalists and hold them incommunicado for extended periods. The Federal Security Service (FSB) maintains an extensive surveillance network and also promises rewards for those who snitch on their neighbors expressing dissatisfaction with the Russian occupation. Crimea has zero freedom of assembly and the government regularly brutally suppresses any protests in opposition to their occupation. A de facto “don’t ask, don’t tell” style policy is in place in the military. The Russian government does not protect against discrimination or recognize same-sex relationships. Any single person can adopt but Russia does not recognize joint same-sex adoption. Crimea received a one-point penalty for cultural genocide.

Eastern Donbas (1/10): Neither the LPR or DPR have a standing law on the death penalty, but it is de facto abolished. Arbitrary executions of Ukrainian sympathizers are common. Separatist forces regularly target civilians in their attacks. Professing Ukrainian identity is dangerous in Donbas and separatists are known to attack people claiming to be Ukrainian. No free media has operated in Donbas since 2014. Donbas has no freedom of assembly. Neither the LPR or DPR have a standing law on LGBT rights but homosexuality is de facto illegal. Neither the LPR nor DPR have a standing law on abortion.

Democracy - 64

Ukraine (62/80): The president and parliament are both directly elected. Elections are free and fair but voting was not possible in Crimea and Eastern Donbas. Ukraine has a strong multi-party system but the Communist Party is banned. President Zelenskyy passed a law banning oligarchs from political participation. This law created a legal definition for an oligarch and a registry of who qualified as one. It required that all political candidates disclose all dealings with oligarchs and prohibit oligarchs from financing political parties. Russia’s influence on Ukrainian politics has waned in recent years.

Crimea (1/10): Crimea is under autocratic rule from occupying Russian forces

Eastern Donbas (1/10): Donbas is under autocratic rule from occupying Russian forces

Freedom - 61

Ukraine (59/80): Emergency provisions allowing the government to conduct searches and seizures without a warrant were often abused and the government sometimes conducted searches and seizures without a warrant or probable cause. Oligarchs own most locally owned Ukrainian media. Most local Ukrainian media favorably portrays oligarchs and their business interests. Most Russian news outlets and Russian journalists are forbidden from entering Ukraine. The government has recently taken steps to prevent vigilante suppression of pride marches, as the Ukrainian army marched alongside a pride parade in Kyiv in 2019. Drug use is not a criminal act but drug use or possession in public is criminalized. The government may issue gun ownership licenses for semi-automatic rifles but handguns are restricted.

Crimea (1/10): Journalists in Crimea face constant legal and physical harassment by Russian authorities. Crimea’s media environment is highly unsafe and the Russian government is known to arbitrarily arrest journalists and hold them incommunicado for extended periods. The FSB maintains an extensive surveillance network and also promises rewards for those who snitch on their neighbors expressing sentiment in opposition to the occupation. The government has shut down nearly all Ukrainian Orthodox Churches and mosques in Crimea. Russian drug and gun laws go unenforced.

Eastern Donbas (1/10): Professing a Ukrainian identity is dangerous in Donbas as separatists are known to attack those claiming to be Ukrainian. No free media has operated in Donbas since 2014. Drug and gun laws go unenforced.

Economy - 76

Health - 66

Ukraine has a life expectancy of 72 years and an infant mortality rate of 0.72%. 24.1% of Ukrainians are obese and 7% are malnourished. Ukraine’s universal healthcare system provides generally high-quality care in major cities, while facilities in rural areas are generally outdated. Healthcare infrastructure in Crimea is not administered by Ukraine and healthcare is virtually nonexistent in the Donbas. 84.7% of Ukrainians have access to clean, running water.

Corruption - 13

Judicial verdicts are bought and sold. Police extortion is rampant in Ukraine. Public services must be bribed into action. Land rights are not adequately protected and the government has been accused of unfairly awarding contracts to friendly companies. Tax fraud and extortion are rampant. Public contracts are impossible to obtain without bribery.

Competency - 33

The government is failing to protect the people from insurgency and foreign incursion. The government is failing to provide for the people. Corruption remains indemic. Ukraine has two major breakaway regions, as both Crimea and the Donbas are under the control of third-party groups. Ukraine received a ten-point penalty for large areas of its de jure territory falling under the de facto control of third party groups.

Future - 64

The Zelenskyy administration has made a number of positive reforms for Ukraine. While there are some concerns about its scope, the Anti-Oligarch Law is ostensibly promising for Ukrainian democracy, and Zelenskyy’s left-wing populist platform is promising for Ukraine in general. However, continued pressure from Russia is concerning as Russia continues to exert pressure on Ukraine. Ukraine has not made any progress against its pro-Russia separatist regions.

Actions Abroad - 70

Ukraine is generally the victim of foreign incursion. Ukraine is a member of the NATO Partnership for Peace and Ukraine has been trying to enter NATO for some time. Ukraine is a founding member of GUAM. LPR and DPR are not recognized as independent.

0.1% of Ukrainians live below the international poverty line and 1.1% live below the national poverty line. 9.48% of Ukrainians are unemployed. Ukraine has a very low economic disparity. The minimum wage in Ukraine is $238 per month. Ukraine has a decent universal healthcare system. Healthcare is of generally high quality in major cities but has not been updated since the Soviet era in some rural areas. Healthcare infrastructure in Crimea is of poor quality and managed by Russia, while healthcare in the Donbas is in shambles. The Ukrainian economy shrunk 4% in 2020 and grew 3.2% in 2019.